OFDT 2026 Report: historic decline in smoking, but...

The OFDT (French Observatory for Drugs and Addictive Trends) yesterday published its new review on tobacco, vaping, and consumption habits in France. A highly anticipated document that confirms an established trend: smoking continues to decline in France.

Excellent news, given that tobacco remains the leading cause of preventable death in France today.

But behind this overall decline in the number of smokers, some figures in the report raise questions. Other forms of tobacco use are increasing significantly, particularly around hookah, shisha, and rolling tobacco. And on the e-cigarette side, the way vaping is treated in the report sometimes leaves a strange impression, as its role in the decline of smoking seems to be downplayed.

To read the OFDT summary

To read the full report

Analysis.

A decline in smoking that the OFDT attributes to public policy

The main takeaway from this 2026 report remains extremely positive: tobacco sales continue their decline in France. Cigarette sales fell by 8.7% over one year and overall volumes of tobacco sold declined by 8.2%.

For the OFDT, this decline is mainly explained by the public policies put in place over several years:

• regular increases in tobacco prices;
• prevention campaigns;
• reimbursement of nicotine replacement therapies;
• medical support;
• remote support services such as Tabac Info Service.

And on this point, it is difficult to deny the results. The price of a packet at €13 is gradually turning cigarettes into an inaccessible luxury product for some consumers.

Another particularly encouraging point concerns young people. The figures show a significant decline in smoking among teenagers over several years. An extremely positive trend that gives hope that, in the long term, smoked tobacco will gradually become marginal among new generations.

For a long time, smoking was almost a teenage rite of passage. Today, that image seems to be losing ground. And this is probably one of the most encouraging signals in the entire report.

But while cigarettes decline… other tobaccos are rising sharply

This is probably one of the most notable blind spots in the OFDT 2026 report.

While traditional cigarettes are declining sharply, "other smoked tobaccos" record a rise of 5.8%. Behind this category lie several practices:

• pipe tobacco;
• roll-your-own tobacco;
• shisha;
• shisha;
• certain tobaccos used in blunts.

In other words: some consumers appear to be turning away from traditional cigarettes, which have become too expensive, in favour of other consumption methods.

Roll-your-own tobacco allows people to make their own cigarettes and reduce costs, for example. But this type of practice often leads to cigarettes with higher tobacco content, less filtration, and sometimes greater harm.

But what raises questions above all is the continued growth of hookah and shisha.

The report does not clearly specify which age groups are affected by this increase. Yet it is hard not to think of consumption that is very prevalent among young adults and teenagers. Shisha has benefited for several years from a "social" image, festive and sometimes even perceived as less dangerous than cigarettes.

Yet the health reality is quite different.

A shisha session can expose users to extremely large volumes of smoke, often far greater than those inhaled from a traditional cigarette. Added to this is the charcoal used to heat the tobacco, which produces in particular large quantities of carbon monoxide as well as toxic particles linked to combustion. Nicotine is highly present in these products, yet no one speaks of a gateway effect towards cigarettes here.

The problem with these "social tobacco" practices is precisely their normalisation. Because they are occasional, shared in groups, or associated with a festive setting, they often give the impression of being less risky. Yet the toxic exposures remain very real, and so does nicotine addiction.

And this is probably where the report could have gone further.

And what about vaping in all of this?

This is undoubtedly the part of the report that will provoke the most reaction in the e-cigarette sector.

For while the document acknowledges certain potential benefits of vaping in smoking cessation, vaping appears primarily through the lens of health surveillance and the risk of initiation among young people.

From the introduction, the OFDT devotes an entire section to the "vaping products market", emphasising in particular its economic weight. Yet one element deserves to be highlighted: contrary to certain preconceived ideas, the French vaping market today remains predominantly driven by independent French companies and specialist networks, far removed from the major historic tobacco manufacturers.

The report then highlights a "sharp rise in vaping among adults and teenagers".

Among adults, the figures do indeed show a significant increase:

• 41.8% of French people aged 18 to 75 have already tried the e-cigarette;
• 8.3% report currently vaping;
• 6.1% vape daily.

But when you read the data carefully, one element stands out: daily vaping is virtually non-existent among people who have never smoked.

Conversely, it primarily concerns smokers or former smokers.

In other words: in the majority of cases, vaping remains used by people who already have a history of smoking.

The report itself acknowledges that the scientific literature highlights the potential benefits of e-cigarettes in helping people quit smoking and in reducing the risks associated with smoked tobacco.

And this is probably where the treatment of the subject may seem unbalanced.

For nearly fifteen years, the e-cigarette has very likely contributed to this historic decline in the number of smokers in France. Millions of French people report having quit or significantly reduced their cigarette consumption thanks to vaping.

Yet this role remains relatively secondary in the way the report presents the causes of the decline in smoking.

The debate around the "gateway effect"

The OFDT also revisits the debate around the well-known "gateway effect": the idea that e-cigarettes could lead some young non-smokers towards tobacco.

The report notes that research is still ongoing on the subject (and has remained unproven for years) and highlights concerns about certain products that are highly appealing to teenagers, particularly disposable vapes now banned in France for health and environmental reasons.

But systematically associating all vaping with these products sometimes remains reductive.

Especially since other international studies strongly nuance this gateway effect theory and instead consider that vaping diverts a proportion of young people away from combustible tobacco rather than leading them towards it.

The report also notes that vaping is not without risk. ANSES in particular mentions possible effects on the respiratory and cardiovascular systems, and stresses the lack of hindsight regarding very long-term effects.

An important point to note: the e-cigarette is not a harmless product and should obviously not be used by non-smokers.

But in a harm reduction logic, the major difference remains the absence of combustion. And it is precisely the combustion of tobacco that produces a large proportion of the toxic substances responsible for smoking-related diseases.

What to take away from this OFDT 2026 report

Ultimately, this new report confirms excellent news: France continues to see smoking decline significantly.

Public policies clearly play an important role in this decline, particularly among younger generations.

But the document also sheds light on certain developments that deserve greater attention:

• the rise of hookah and other smoked tobaccos;
• the normalisation of "social tobacco" practices;
• the persistent questions surrounding the role of vaping in the fight against smoking.

The e-cigarette is neither a miracle product nor a completely risk-free one. But it is becoming difficult to ignore the role it has likely played in the historic decline in the number of smokers observed in France over more than a decade.

And while the public debate continues to focus on vaping, some far more toxic forms of tobacco consumption sometimes seem to be advancing more quietly...